Can the Mayors Office Count?

I'm not talking about 400, 635, 585, 627, or 650 million dollars (or whatever the final number becomes). I'm talking about votes. The Mayor's office has consistently implied this thing is a done deal. They have hired every lobbyist and PR firm in town who troll the blogs and comments sections saying this is a SLAM DUNK.

But is it?

The Mayors office is now saying they have 22ish votes. Which I've learned means they have 16-17 SOLID votes, a couple of "leaners", and a few that will be getting a lot of attention in the next 5 days.

So what happened? Didn't the Mayor enjoy 30+ votes from the Council when they were authorizing money, condemning property, and moving this along incrementally? What has happened to the Mayors support? Is the Mayor's "Trust Me" M.O. losing it's effectiveness? Does anyone over there know how to count?